DVDs

Satellites

Internet

Virtual Mayhem

High-Speed War

Internet TV

New Content Delivery Methods

Seismic Shift For Consumers Due, Says Price Waterhouse

According to the "Price Waterhouse EMC Technology Forecast: 1998," globalization, deregulation and the growth of digital and satellite technologies have contributed to a "seismic shift’ in the convergence of the entertainment, media and communications (EMC) industries.

Fast-paced change and uncertainty underpin the "Top 10" trends for the future of the EMC industries. Predictions in this third EMC Technology Forecast include:

DVDs

DVDs (digital video discs) are set to replace VCRs and CD-ROMs on most new computers. DVD technology will, it is claimed, be adopted throughout the consumer electronics industry for video, music and interactive games.

Top

Satellites

The growth of the "global mobile" executive will be spearheaded by satellite communications. Satellite technology will continue to grow and establish its prominence as a system for delivering telecommunications, data, entertainment and media to businesses and consumers. Executives will demand — and begin to receive — voice, video and high-speed data capability anywhere, at any time, through satellite and digital cellular devices.

Top

Internet

The Internet will continue its rapid growth into an ubiquitous media, and concerns over security issues will be quelled. The secure Internet environment will be capable of supporting a rich variety of content as well as electronic commerce with greater fidelity and reliability. Companies will, the report predicts, increasingly realize the importance of standardizing systems for tracking advertising and other commercial transactions over the Internet.

The creation of a borderless, "virtual" business environment will bring with it difficulties in intellectual property protection and rights management. The digital revolution will severely challenge governments’ ability to regulate, tax and monitor the commercial and recreational activities of its citizens.

The local telephony war will begin in earnest. But, high-speed data services — not voice and video — will be the initial source of battle between local telecommunications companies and cable operators.

The Internet TV market will grow in stature. The integration of television and computing technologies will continue, but the market for simple, TV-like devices with Web access capabilities will grow faster than large computer monitors that also receive television programming.

Digital studios will move from mere digitization of assets to full production and distribution on new delivery platforms such as DVD, Digital TV, game consoles, the Internet and digital distribution of movies, in addition to today’s typical distribution channels. As the number of media assets used to produce films, games, and Web pages increases, entertainment and media companies will adopt sophisticated digital content management solutions to store, retrieve and repurpose their valuable assets.

Telecommunications companies’ ongoing efforts to enter the video market using existing infrastructures may be stymied, as direct-broadcast satellite (DBS) and wireless cable providers offer similar services that are either more established or less costly to build.

"Within the last few years, convergence in the EMC industries has changed course dramatically, creating many new opportunities for key players," said Kevin Carton, global chairman of the Price Waterhouse EMC Group.

Earlier hype over broadband transmission services to the home will prove premature. Technical capabilities for transmitting customized broadband information such as entertainment and multimedia will not be widely available before the Year 2000.

Carton claims that companies must not get caught up in the euphoria created by growth and expansion in this fast-moving environment. "They need to maintain a strong measure of `organizational sobriety’ — a tight focus on customers and a steadfast observance of the core rules of business, which helped them become successful in the first place," he explained.

The "Price Waterhouse EMC Technology Forecast" is drawn from the firm’s extensive research and in-depth interviews with more than 70 senior industry executives. The Forecast outlines the key technologies and business strategies driving entertainment, media and communications companies, and predicts trends and developments within the EMC industries through to the year 2000.

This "EMC Technology Forecast" points out that many previously "hot" convergence developments — such as interactive television, Internet retailing and the US Telecommunications Reform Act of 1996 —have failed to emerge as expected. Instead, the report notes, the EMC marketplace has shifted in emphasis toward convergence and consolidation within industries, rather than between industries.

Price Waterhouse’s Web site is at http://www.pw.com/emc.

(Contact: Price Waterhouse +44-171-939-3000)

Top